Copyright © 2001-2014, Nick Anthony Fiorenza, All Rights Reserved
In this section: Learn about Predictions for our next Solar Cycle #25, the Solar Minimum and Global Cooling, our current Solar Cycle #24 (2013-14); our last Solar Cycle #23; about Solar Cycles in general, about our changing interstellar environment; and about the effects of Solar Flares for humans and human consciousness.
"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906...."
Latest Updates Here
NASA Solar Physics / Marshall Space Flight Center
Declining Solar Cycles indicate the Sun is entering a Solar MInimum resulting in Global Cooling.
Image Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center
NOAA's Sun Spot Graph (shown below) is updated monthly on
Graph: NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Solar Cycle 25 is expected to be the smallest in over 300 years, suggesting the end of the Modern Warm Period, plummeting Earth into a period of global cooling, which could be like the Mini Ice Age that occurred during the last grand minimum of solar activity, known as the Maunder Minimum.
The Maunder Minimum is named after astronomer E.W. Maunder who discovered the absence of sunspots during that period. Recently published data suggests that the Sun expanded during the Maunder Minimum and its rotation slowed. A larger and slower Sun, it is speculated, might also mean a cooler Sun that provides less heat to Earth. This image was prepared by Robert A. Rohde.
Winter severity in Europe, 1000 - 1900. Note two cold periods in the 15th and 17th centuries. The coldest corresponds to the time of the Solar Maunder Minimum. Image from: H.H. Lamb, "Climatic Fluctuations", in H. Flohn (ed), World Survey of Climatology. Vol.2. General Climatology (New York: Elsevier, 1969), p. 236; Schneider, S. H., and C. Mass, "Volcanic dust, sunspots, and temperature trends", Science, 190 (1975) 741-746.
Livingston-Penn Solar Cycle 25 amplitude estimate.
Umbral Magnetic Field
Livingston and Penn
Umbral Magnetic Field
Dr. Leif Svalgaard Update
Tracking the decline in sunspot magnetic field (Umbral Magnetic Field), Livingston and Penn predict that sunspots will disappear when the umbral magnetic field strength falls below a certain level. This work has been updated by Dr. Leif Svalgaard.
Dr. Leif Svalgaard Research
Matthew J. Penn & William Livingston
National Solar Observatory (PDF)
NASA Long Range Solar Forecast – Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2024 could be one of the weakest in centuries.
From National Geographic:
"Three independent studies of the sun's insides, surface, and upper atmosphere all predict that the next solar cycle will be significantly delayed—if it happens at all. Normally, the next cycle would be expected to start roughly around 2020.
The combined data indicate that we may soon be headed into what's known as a grand minimum, a period of unusually low solar activity. This expected to be similar to the last grand minimum on record (1645 and 1715) known as the Maunder Minimum. This ~70-year period coincided with the "Little Ice Age."
More Climate & Little Ice Age Resources: 1000 Year Time Scale - NOAA Paleoclimatology
A Solar Filament on the Sun
Image & Caption Credit: Earth-orbiting TRACE satellite, NASA
"Hot gas frequently erupts from the Sun. One such eruption produced the glowing filament pictured above, which was captured in 2000 July by the Earth-orbiting TRACE satellite. The filament, although small compared to the overall size of the Sun, measures over 100,000 kilometers in height, so that the entire Earth could easily fit into its outstretched arms. Gas in the filament is funneled by the complex and changing magnetic field of the Sun. After lifting off from the Sun's surface, most of the filamentary gas will eventually fall back. More powerful solar eruptions emit particles that reach the Earth and can disrupt manmade satellites. The cause and nature of solar eruptions are the topic of much research."
* Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (ISAS/JAXA) & NASA
Solar cycles and their activity play an intimate part in the unfoldment of human consciousness. Solar flares affect the Central Nervous System (stomach lining), all brain activity (including equilibrium), all human and animal behavior and all psychophysiological (mental-emotional-physical) response.
Solar flares can cause some people to be nervous, anxious, worrisome, jittery, irritable, lethargic, to have short term memory loss, to feel nauseous, queasy, and have prolonged head pressure or head aches. They can also cause trouble with the radio, phone, Internet, computers, and all forms of communication—both human and technological.
Solar activity can also be stimulating, invigorating, illuminating, and create a heightened sense of awareness, and it can enhance vision and creativity tremendously. It especially stimulates the pineal gland in the brain, which is our center of vision and creativity. The pineal gland is a "neuroendocrine transducer" that converts gravitational-magnetic signals into chemical hormonal responses that control, via the hypothalamus, the pituitary gland. The pituitary is the master control center of the brain that governs the rest of the neurological system. This information expresses into the cellular structure of the individual—essentially into the molecular matrix of the cell in a "DNA Illumination Sequence" that is responsible for our evolutionary awakening. The pituitary is the administrative seat controlling cellular memory, and hence, the remembrance / emergence of our true selves.
How a person experiences enhanced solar activity is a function of the resonance of their physical neurology. If a person is crystalized with mental, emotional and physical blockages, then increase solar activity may seem uncomfortable. It is like trying to get something to improve in vibrational resonance that has resistance to do so. It a person has a more refined neurological resonance, that is for people that have done the inner work to clear mental, emotional and physical crystallizations, then enhanced solar activity is enlivening, and gives one a heightened perceptual awareness. In addition, if a person's pineal gland is severely calcified, which is common amongst most humans and generally occurs at age six, partly due to the stifling of extra-sensory awareness and creativity when very young, then the pineal is not able to respond (vibrate) to increase "light" solar activity as it should.
Solar activity, although dramatic, catalyzes, and is essential for our evolutionary process by stimulating radical change and transformation in the organizational foundation of matter, energy and consciousness. Solar activity plays an intimate role along with the dynamic transition in Earth's precessional cycle, and the erect precessional cross which occurred around 1998-2000 A.D. and which began the "time of change" in Earth's ~25,000-year "Evolutionary Cycle of the Soul." Solar flare activity and other stellar explosions (supernovas) are the primary catalysts that stimulate a renaissance in consciousness. They provide cosmic impulses that supports the evolutionary maturation of the incarnate soul—the illumination of consciousness that we all seek.
Remember, solar activity illuminates consciousness, dissolving duality's paradox - the fear and judgment based monsters within are consumed in Light - old patterns of behavior vanish, while true elegance and majesty of self emerges.
Unconditional Love banishes Fear - a choice.
Choose a new octave of participation in harmony and beauty,
above the raging tempest of a crumbling old world.
Solar Cycle 24 is but the first half of the 22-year solar duplex cycle called the "Hale Cycle." Solar Cycle 25, which is expected to start around 2018-2020 and to peak around 2023-2024, will create the second half of our new 22-year Hale Cycle.
Our previous solar cycle, #23, began in October of 1996. The climb from a sunspot minimum to a sunspot maximum takes approximately four years. The decline from maximum to minimum takes approximately seven years. A typical solar cycle is eleven years. The peak lasts from 2 to 4 years, The cycles are measured from minimum to minimum and range from 9 to 14 years.
The odd numbered cycles tend to be more intense than their preceding even numbered cycles, and the general trend of cycle amplitudes was increasing up to cycle #23. For this reason, many researchers thought that cycle #23 might have exceeded cycle 22, the third largest in recorded history, which peaked in 1989, and could have been larger than cycle #19, which was the largest in recorded history and which peaked in 1957-8, however, cycle #23 was not a record setter. Cycles 22 and 23 together created our previous 22-year Hale Cycle.
Also note that there is a difference between the rate of sunspots occurring and the intensity of any specific solar flare emerging from the sun.
Graph: Jan Alvestad / Data from Sunspot Index Data Center in Brussels
A solar cycle begins during the decline of the previous cycle. The minimum level of solar activity between cycles 22 and 23 occurred in May of 1996. Solar cycle # 23 began in 1996.
Graph: NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Let us also recognize that our sun (and our entire solar system), encapsulated in its protective womb (heliosphere), is traveling through a continually changing interstellar environment quite rapidly. (The sun speeds at approximately 8,200 miles per minute through interstellar space, currently toward a point in the heavens called the "Solar Apex" near the Vega star system. This does not imply our Sun's path is a straight line, it only indicates our Sun's current direction of movement.) Changes encountered in the interstellar environment (such as in its charge density) may also have a tremendous effect upon our entire star system and in the evolutionary changes in store for us. Strong evidence from the Russian Academy of Sciences (Dr. Alexey N. Dmitriev 1997) suggests our entire helioshpere, is being highly charged because of exactly this, effecting not only Earth, but all of the planets in our solar system, in an irreversible way. Dr. Dmitriev suggests that this is a primary cause of many of the physical changes we are experiencing such as in climate change, ozone distribution levels, and the occurrence of luminous atmospheric phenomena (rather than being caused by man’s environmental tampering). Thus, the effect of our current precessional transition may nest within greater interstellar changes as well. It is interesting to note that Dr. Dmitriev also states that there is probability that we may be moving into a rapid temperature instability period like the one that occurred about 10,000 years ago—curiously the time around Earth's last erect Precessional Cross, the 90° point in Earth's precessional cycle.
Are Sunspots Disappearing?
Since the longer "Solar Grand Maximum" cycle is over and we will be entering a "Solar Grand Minimum" over the decades ahead, we should start to se a decrease in solar cycle intensity; as well as the start of a global cooling—contrary to the global warming scare popularized in the media. Predications about solar cycle 24 seem to confirm this. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract.
The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "It's off the bottom of the charts," he says. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity."
The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle, and that's why the slowdown is important.
NASA's New Solar Dynamics Observatory Goes Live! The Sun as we've never seen it.
April 21, 2010. NASA's New Solar Dynamics Observatory is beaming back stunning new images of the sun, revealing our own star as never seen before. Warning, the images you are about to see could take your breath away. April 21, 2010 Press Release: First Light for the Solar Dynamics Observatory.
Solar Dynamics Observatory home page
A complete gallery of SDO's First Light images and data: SDO Gallery
Feb 19, 2010 - At the AGU Fall meeting, Sami K. Solanki of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research announced that he believes the Sun is leaving its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century. He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years.
Two-hour video of this AGU session:
"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. " The cause of the surge is the solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Cosmic Rays-NASA."
"The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. Are sunspots disappearing? Experts discuss the question in this September 2009 story: Disappearing Sunspots-NASA."
"The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) has done an excellent job of exposing a major cover-up at the EPA regarding a study on global warming because it conflicts with the agenda of the current administration and its Cap and Trade legislation." Global Cooling Full Story
There were no sunspots observed on 266 out of 366 days during 2008 (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days. Thus it was thought that 2008 was the low. However, sunspot counts for (early) 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%).
Full NASA article here: Deep Solar Minimum
SOHO (Solar and Heliosperic Observatory)
- a project of international cooperation between The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA.
SIDC (Solar Influences Data Analysis Center). The SIDC is the solar physics research department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Its operational activities include the World Data Center for the sunspot index and the Regional Warning Center Belgium for space weather forecasting.
NASA Solar Research http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/
Space Weather Bureau - http://www.spaceweather.com/
NOAA's "Space Weather Now" - http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/
NOAA's "Space Weather Prediction Center" - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
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